Yields on U.S. 10-year Treasury notes slid below those on two-year notes on Wednesday, delivering a reliable recession signal and sending shudders through global financial markets. Other sections of ...

Two years ago, the yield curve inverted, meaning short-term interest rates on treasury bonds were unusually higher than long term rates. When that's happened in the past, a recession has come. A key ...

The inverted yield curve is one of the more reliable recession indicators. I discussed it at length last December. At that point, we had not yet seen a full inversion. Now we have, and it appears the ...

The yield curve has long been a closely watched indicator of economic health. When the yield curve inverts, meaning short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates, it is often seen as a harbinger of ...

The U.S. Treasury yield curve, one of the most reliable signals of recession, is flashing red again. As of March 2025, the spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields remains inverted, a ...

Monday - Friday, 1:00 - 2:00 PM ET Markets are no doubt cheering the selection of macro investor Scott Bessent as Trump's new Treasury Secretary. Stocks are popping globally, and even more ...